Bitcoin has exhibited a pattern in the past which can be said to be booms and busts in its price. There have also been similarities between the percentage of increment and decrement between certain years.
However, Bitcoin may not decline by 85 percent as is evident in the past, reports Bloomberg on June 13, 2019.
Similarities in Bitcoin’s Performance in the Past
Per the report, Bitcoin surged from $0 in 2009 to almost $150 in 2013 but later dumped 60 percent in price only to rebound to $1,150. In 2015, it declined by 85 percent to $175 which is considerably higher than its price in 2013. Similarly, it surged to $20,000 in late 2017 only to dump by over 85 percent in December 2018.
Therefore, if one considers the pattern, they can expect a sharp rise in the virtual asset’s price between $60,000 to $400,000 before it also dumps by 85 percent. While that may sound pessimistic, there are reasons to believe that the spike and sudden crash in price will not be the case this time around. So far, Bitcoin is currently trading at $8,600 and its year-to-date high is $9100.
Reasons Bust Percentage May be Lower
On the other hand, the previous performance might not be evident since Bitcoin’s market cap is not $152 billion which is larger than its $1 billion and $3 billion market cap in 2013 and 2015 respectively. Moreover, more people have ventured into space as well as companies. An instance is the case of JP Morgan who launched its own cryptocurrency.
Nonetheless, crashes can still be expected since volatility is prevalent even in crypto assets that have no value. However, they may not be as significant as in the past where the dump amounted to 80 percent. What can be expected, is something around 20 percent or less.
Bitcoin’s Options Market
While throwing more light on what may have led to its conclusion, Bloomberg made reference to the Bitcoin options market. According to the media, when cryptocurrencies prices in late 2017 were similar to what’s happening today, the $10,000 one-month Bitcoin calls had an active trading and implied volatility of 300 percent.
The latter meant paying $2,200 just for the right to buy Bitcoin at $10,000 when its price is $8,000. Another factor that was a consideration is the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index.
Generally, crypto assets correlate with the index due to their performance in good economic times with support for innovation and inexpensive capital.
John McAfee Doubles Down On His $1 million BTC Price Prediction. This Time Raising The Bar, Predicting $2 million Before 2020’s End
You probably will think John McAfee has lost his mind with his predictions. Firstly, a $1 million BTC price, now $2 million before the end of 2020. However, taking a critical look at things fundamentally, some few factors may drive his prediction to come about.
John McAfee, who’s so sure of his prediction has in the past said he would feed on his genitals on national TV if it didn’t come to pass. In his recent forecast, Mr. McAfee, who’s undoubtedly convinced of his position said;
“If Bitcoin is less than $2 million by the end of 2020, then mathematics itself is a flawed disappointment.”
Nevertheless, here are a few factors that could see John McAfee’s outrageous prediction come true.
#1. 2020 Bitcoin Halving
The 2020 bitcoin halving is probably the most anticipated event for bitcoin holders investors. The event, slated for May 2020 would see bitcoin’s reward slashed into two – from its present 1,800 daily rewards to 900. When this happens, it’s expected that the value of bitcoin rises drastically as the asset becomes more scarce.
#2. Global Recession
Countries such as Venezuela is on top of the list of those facing economic turmoil. This situation leaves its citizens looking for a better option – a way to preserve their wealth from drastically declining in value.
It has led to a lot of people seeking refuge in bitcoin. However, Venezuela isn’t alone in this, and if more countries join in, the value of bitcoin could rise exponentially.
#3. Institutional Investors
Another factor that could propagate bitcoin’s adoption would be when Wall Street fully takes an interest in bitcoin. At the moment, things are starting to light up from this angle. Bakkt’s launching, though having a sluggish start, without a doubt has begun to receive some attention from institutional investors.
As reported by ZyCrypto, there was a glimpse of interest from institutional traders when trading volume on the Bakkt exchange reached 224 BTCs on Wednesday, 9th October 2019. However, a full adoption by these investors is expected to give bitcoin’s value a considerable boost.
#4. Bitcoin’s Scarce Nature
Bitcoin is scarce by design. There are only 21 million of it that will ever be. Unlike fiat, where millions are printed periodically, the world is literally fighting to have a piece of the bitcoin pie. It means having it at any price. This demand would, therefore, drive bitcoin price high, several percentages.
While all the above mentioned are true factors that may drive bitcoin adoption, and its price high, a $2 million price prediction for Bitcoin may seem like an over-exaggeration. However, only time would tell as the world watches events roll by.
Let us know what you think in the comment box below.
In Peter Brandt’s Opinion, Bitcoin is in its Fourth Parabolic Phase as it Heads Towards $100k
A lot of crypto analysts seem to have taken a bullish stance on Bitcoin despite the asset’s recent decline in its price. One of such is Peter Brandt, a veteran trader who said on September 1, 2019, that Bitcoin has entered its fourth parabolic phase. As such, the cryptocurrency could set another record, rallying to a new all-time high soon.
Peter Brandt’s Past Predictions
Peter Brandt is popularly known for his forecasts and has gained the interest of many traders as some of his predictions have come true in the past. For starters, he correctly predicted an 80% dump in Bitcoin’s price in January 2018, and it turned out to be the case by the year’s end. The iconic trader also forecasted a bull run in April, and by June, Bitcoin spiked to its year-to-date high of $13,796.
Of recent, Brandt also opined that Bitcoin has entered its fourth parabolic phase, which could do a lot of good for the crypto market. A phase, of this nature, could potentially take Bitcoin’s price beyond its present all-time high of about $20k. How high? One may wonder, it could be towards the $100,000 he says.
Raoul Pal Says It’s Now or Never
Brandt’s tweet was also linked to that of Raoul Pal, CEO of Global Macro Investor and Real Vision Group. According to Pal, a wedge pattern has just been exhibited in the Bitcoin short term chart. Moreover, it is not just any wedge, but one that has shown a high potential for success in the past.
Pal further remarks that this may be the last time for those who do not have Bitcoin to dive into the market. In his opinion, there could be a rocket in Bitcoin’s price soon; a prediction that is similar to that of Brandt’s.
Crypto Twitter Objects
On the other hand, some members of Crypto Twitter who made comments were in disagreement with Brandt’s and Pal’s opinion. These individuals remarked that the wedge pattern which Brandt and Pal spoke of is a pennant. A pennant, in their opinion, is a signal of a major dump in price in a crypto asset.
Despite the contrary views, there is still a high chance for the fulfillment of Brandt’s prediction. For beginners, Bitcoin’s halving in May 2020, which will reduce the amount of Bitcoin’s supplied to the market, could help to surge its price significantly. PlanB, for instance, had predicted in March that Bitcoin could rise to $55,000 after its halving in May 2020.
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